Chapter 2
A War of Choice
January 17, 2021
New Delhi, India
Secretariat Building
Prime Minister Bhamre put his tea down when he heard Ambassador Singh mention the phrase tactical nuclear weapons. The more his most trusted ambassador explained from his secured video teleconference connection in Washington, D.C., the more alarmed he became.
Could the situation in America really be this bad?
The others present for this emergency meeting of the National Security Council also appeared to be as concerned as he was. Several of them exchanged nervous glances with the Defense Minister, trying to gauge her reaction to the news.
When Singh had finished delivering the summary of his most recent conversation with the American Secretary of State, PM Bhamre felt dumbfounded. “Surely they can’t be serious,” he remarked.
Deputy National Security Advisor Khandare shook his head, and his lower lip pushed out in a pout.
“You disagree, Khandare?” Bhamre asked curiously.
Lifting his chin, Khandare asserted, “The Americans would never use a nuclear weapon like this—even a tactical nuclear weapon. They just wouldn’t. This is an intimidation tactic that they’re hoping they won’t have to back up with deeds.”
Prime Minister Bhamre crossed his arms. “Still, it’s pretty concerning that they would even make a threat like this, idle or not. Can you imagine if they followed through on it?”
Several of the meeting’s attendees nodded.
“I think we should take this proposition seriously,” said Dr. Harsh Gandhi, the Head of the Research and Analysis Wing, India’s external intelligence agency. “As far as I’m concerned, I think we should agree to the Americans’ proposal.”
Several people in the room gasped in shock. The Minister of Defense just raised an eyebrow and smiled as she waited for her friend to explain his reasoning.
“You can’t be serious, Dr. Gandhi,” Prime Minister Khandare remarked. “This could lead us to war, a war of choice, not necessity.” Then he reached over and poured himself another cup of tea, dismissing the comment as impractical.
Dr. Gandhi sighed as if he were preparing himself to speak to a hysterical toddler. “Mr. Prime Minister, Deputy NSA—Secretary Kagel is right about one thing. The Chinese military is extremely overleveraged right now. If we made a credible threat against our disputed territorial areas or threatened to liberate Tibet, it would probably cause the Chinese government to halt invasion plans at the southern American border.”
“It could also lead us to a war we don’t need to fight,” the Prime Minister retorted hotly.
Defense Minister Sitharaman shook her head. “That’s not entirely true, Prime Minister. Just because we move forces to the line of control and appear to threaten China does not mean we have to follow through on that warning and invade. We just have to appear, albeit convincingly, as if we’re willing to do so.”
Khandare shot her a nasty look, surprised that she’d side with the secretive Dr. Gandhi on this preposterous idea.
“Let’s not forget there is an economic component to this offer, Mr. Prime Minister,” Ambassador Singh insisted. “If making it appear as if we’re willing to attack China prevents them from invading the southern American border, it’ll have been worth it.”
“Ambassador Singh, Minister Sitharaman—is it true the Chinese H-20 stealth bomber is operational?” the Prime Minister asked.
Dr. Gandhi interjected, “Yes. It has to be true.”
“I agree. I don’t see any other alternative. The Americans have no reason to lie to us about this,” Ambassador Singh concurred. “Plus, I don’t think any other aircraft could have gotten close enough to deliver its bombs to hit the Raven Rock bunker. Two of the three pairs of Russian Blackjack bombers were hunted down and destroyed before they even made it to their targets. The H-20 is the only bomber that could have penetrated so deep into their airspace to carry out a raid like this.”
“We know the Americans shot down at least one of the H-20s over the state of Maryland, and the other may have been destroyed when they raided the Canadian air base at Cold Lake a few days ago,” added Dr. Gandhi. “However, even with the high-powered radar that the Americans have, the Chinese still managed to use these aircraft for maximum impact—just imagine what they would do with our less sophisticated radar networks. Plus, I can all but guarantee you that they didn’t use their only H-20s in this single attack. There have to be more of them out there, ready to strike.”
Prime Minister Bhamre grimaced at the implications of this new stealth weapon the Chinese appeared to have unveiled. “If the H-20 is operational, then that changes the calculus for everything,” he uttered in exasperation. “Do we even have any idea of how many of them they have operational or where they even are?”
Dr. Gandhi leaned forward and lit up another cigarette. “My agency believes they have at least twelve of them up and running, but we have no idea how many more they may have in production,” he explained. “We believe they have them based at the Foluo Northeast Air Base on Hainan Island.” He puffed away nonchalantly—the man was a veritable chimney.
Deputy NSA Khandare wrinkled his eyebrows. “Why Hainan Island? I would think they would have positioned these bombers to be closer to Beijing.”
Shaking his head as if he was talking to a student who’d just asked a rudimentary question, Dr. Gandhi replied, “The advantage to Hainan Island is its location. Remember, this aircraft was designed to give the Chinese Air Force the opportunity to strike at the American air and naval facilities in the Pacific. Hainan places them in range of Guam and their budding facilities in the Philippines and Singapore. They could have some of them stationed near Beijing, but they know more eyes and satellites watch those bases. The Foluo base also has the advantage of multiple aircraft storage facilities built right into the mountain the base is adjacent to. They can hide those bombers under the mountain, out of sight of satellites and prying eyes.”
The Prime Minister shook his head. “Regardless of where these bombers are stationed, if they have them in any serious numbers, they’re a game changer to our national defense strategy. They could carry out a decapitation strike of our government, and we’d never know it was happening until it was too late.” He let out his breath in a huff. “Honestly, I’m not comfortable with making even a perceived threat to China if they have a first-strike capability like this.”
“If I could, Mr. Prime Minister, we’ve made it abundantly clear to China that any first-strike weapon used on our government would be met with a nuclear response by us,” Defense Minister Sitharaman insisted. “That has been our declared stance to both the Chinese and the Pakistanis. I don’t believe the Chinese would test our resolve to use nuclear weapons if they launched a first strike against us—not when they have a large portion of their air force and army preparing to invade America.
“It’s my opinion that the Chinese will tread lightly with us and take any aggression or perceived threat from us seriously. They know they are in no position to fight or win a protracted war against the Americans and us simultaneously. I have to agree with Ambassador Singh and Dr. Gandhi. China is at its weakest point right now. We should not abandon our American friends in their time of need like this. Their economic offer could also help us for decades to come, and that’s not something we should just dismiss without careful consideration.”
Deputy NSA Khandare folded his arms indignantly. “You can’t be taking this proposal into earnest consideration, Prime Minister. This could lead us to a war we neither need to be involved in nor benefit from. This is not a wise decision.”
Rubbing the stubble growing on his chin, the PM leaned back in his chair as he thought about all the implications and what to do. He knew if he turned his back on the Americans now and the current administration happened to survive the war, India’s relations with the Americans would be severely damaged—especially if Sachs was still in charge. The man could hold a grudge. Then again, if India went to war with China, that could be just as disastrous.
There has to be a middle position somewhere in all of this, he thought.
Sitting forward in his chair, he stared at Sitharaman, his Minister of Defense. “OK. We’ll move forward with the American proposal. But before you get excited, I want you to know that I have no intention of following through on our warning to invade China. We aren’t going to go to war with China. If they see through our threat, then so be it.”
Minister Sitharaman smiled as she shared a mischievous look with Dr. Gandhi. He just nodded but didn’t say anything. Instead, he lit a third cigarette.
“Very well, Mr. Prime Minister. I’ll do my best to make this look as real as possible,” she said to his satisfaction.
The others in the room didn’t seem as sure, but they didn’t say anything to contradict the Prime Minister’s decision.
*******
When Minister Sitharaman left the National Security Council meeting, Dr. Gandhi joined her as she walked down the hallway back to her office.
“How real do you want this charade to look?” he asked with a devilish expression.
She snickered. “Charade? You think we’ll back down, do you?”
Gandhi raised an eyebrow before a smirk spread across his face. “I’ll get my people ready then,” he responded, and then he broke off from their walk to head back to his own office.
*******
Beijing, China
After the dastardly attack across Beijing at the outset of the war, President Chen had moved the entire government and military leadership to the Joint Battle Center. The JBC was a deep underground command bunker just outside Beijing; it was essentially China’s version of Raven Rock. The only difference was that their hardened shelter sat nearly two thousand feet below the earth and couldn’t be penetrated by American bunker-busters or even tactical nuclear weapons.
The day the American stealth bombers had paid Beijing a visit was a horrific day for the people of China. More than half of the 166 members of the Standing Committee had been killed during the raid on the exclusive Jade Spring Hill housing development and the Zhongnanhai government compound.
The attack had nearly killed President Chen. The decapitation strike would have found its target had Chen not unexpectedly stayed the night at a military base when his meeting about operations in the American Southwest had gone late into the evening. As it was, his wife and two children had been killed in the raid, leaving Chen emotionally devastated. It had infuriated him to no end that the Americans had not only tried to kill him, but they’d gone after his family.
Fear and panic had gripped the city. More than two thousand people had died during the daylight raid on the capital. Once the immediate anxiety and alarm had subsided, the people became enraged—first at their own government for having failed to protect them, and then at the Americans who had attacked them.
The Ministry of Information quickly went to work crafting and shaping the government’s message of what happened and carefully choreographed its dissemination to the rest of the country. By the second day of the conflict, the orchestrated messages began to have their desired effect. The people were clamoring for revenge and American blood. They were also completely oblivious to the fact that China had attacked America first as a part of the UN peacekeeping force, or that China had presumably killed the American president.
*******
20 Kilometers Northwest of Beijing
Western Hills National Park
Central Military Commission Joint Battle Center
Turning to look at Foreign Minister Jiang, Chen asked, “What do you make of this threat from India?”
Foreign Minister Jiang squirmed uncomfortably in his chair. “I think it has the fingerprints of America written all over it. I’m not sure we should pay it much attention.”
“I’m personally more concerned with the Americans’ threat to use tactical nuclear weapons,” asserted General Wu. “Do you really think they would attack the Three Gorges Dam?”
Admiral Hu shook his head. “The Americans can’t be serious about nuking the dam. It’s not a military target,” he explained dismissively. “If the Americans were ever to use nuclear weapons, either as a first strike or in retaliation, they would hit military targets. That’s been a part of their doctrine since the Cold War. I simply can’t believe they would attack a civilian dam, especially the Three Gorges Dam. The entire world would turn on them if they did that.”
General Ma smiled. “You say the world would turn on the Americans if they used a nuclear weapon on the dam, and they might. But let’s not forget our battle plan to defeat the Americans relies exclusively on using EMPs and nuclear weapons on several civilian targets. There’s a high likelihood that the Americans will respond by hitting the dam. I think we need to be prepared for that in case it were to happen.” Ma Xingrui was the head of the PLA Rocket Force. He was one of the new crops of generals Chen had been moving into the senior ranks of the PLA as part of his plan to modernize the military and replace the old guard with younger men who were loyal and more pliable.
Turning to look at Ma, Admiral Hu retorted, “You may be right, General. However, the loss of life from the destruction of the dam, while tragic, wouldn’t collapse our country or government. When we detonate an EMP over parts of America, their technology-dependent society will simply implode. Furthermore, the difference between the Americans and us is that we don’t care what the rest of the world says or thinks of us. When our plan is complete, we will be the dominant military and economic power, not just in Asia, but across the globe. When we tell the world to jump, they will ask how high.”
President Chen shook his head at the banter between the military men. “Gentlemen, we have war-gamed this out many times the last several years. If we are to defeat the Americans, then we need to continue to fan the flames of their internal civil war and also remove them as a naval power in the Pacific.”
He paused for a second before continuing. “Unless we neutralize the American Pacific bases and their remaining carrier strike groups, our convoys to Mexico will be continually interdicted and harassed. We’re going to take a serious reputational hit with the international community when we carry out this attack, but it will be worth it. Time has a way of healing old wounds. Let’s not forget that it’s the victors that write history. We will craft the message the world will read about for generations to come.”
Chen turned to his Foreign Minister. “I want our ultimatum issued to the Japanese. They are to either kick the remaining Americans out of their territory or feel our wrath when we attack. Make sure to tell them that we have no intention of invading Japan or occupying their country, but if they are going to remain in a military alliance with the US, then we will be forced to deal with them as a threat. Tell them they have until February first to kick the Americans out of their country.”
The Foreign Minister wrote a few notes down, then nodded his head in agreement.
Pausing for a moment, Chen looked at his military leaders and leaned forward. “Back to this Indian intimidation. Here’s what we are going to do. We can assume the Americans put the Indians up to making this threat against us. Well, I’m not buying it. I don’t believe the Indians would sacrifice their trade relations with us to help the Americans. Let’s send a message back to India telling them we know this is a bluff and we’re calling them on it. Tell them we have an excellent trade relationship with each other, and they shouldn’t risk it over some naïve attempt at helping an illegitimate American government stay in power.
“Furthermore, send a message back to the American Secretary of State. Tell her we see through their idle threat and attempt to coerce the Indians into doing their bidding. Remind her that the world stands united against the administration she represents, and the sooner acting President Powers relinquishes control and Senator Tate is sworn into office, the sooner this conflict can end. Until it does, China is going to work with the UN to liberate the American people from the dictator in the White House.
“In the meantime, I want our military forces made ready to attack the American naval and air bases in the Pacific. We also need to prepare for the eventual nuclear response we are sure to receive. Begin covertly moving as much of our nuclear assets to new bunkers as possible. Make sure we are feeding the Americans enough information to target the bases we want them to hit and not the ones that would hurt us the most. In a few weeks, gentlemen, America will either have a new leader that is amenable to our way of thinking and this war will end, or their nation will simply cease to exist.” He sat back in his chair and smiled.
Some of the older men at the table murmured. Not all of them were entirely on board with this all-in approach to dealing with America. However, the younger leaders all smiled and nodded.
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